Chicagostock Trading

Since silver's new low by a tick last year at 26145 in December, we saw the market squeeze into highs of 37580, retesting resistance from where the market broke down from in August.  This failed to hold and we have seen the market slowly drift back lower where it is now retesting where it broke out from in December being the 29000-26145 range.  This retracement offers bulls a level to defend within 29000 to the 26145 lows, using a break below 26000 as the exit.  The target for the move is 32, 35, 38. Failure to hold the 26000 and the market can see further downside room to 20 which would be testing the August 2010 breakout. 

Following the bounce seen the last week of April off the 1354 lows, the market rallied into retesting its daily channel that was broken on April 6th.  The bottom of this channel was hit on the tee as the market put in highs of 1411.75 and failed to move past the level, only to be rejected and turned lower.  Thus far we have seen the market break off this rejection and fall back down into taking out the stops below the 1354-1352.50 lows.  This has the market now testing the bottom of a newly created channel based off the March - May highs.  This test of this bottom channel also sees the market nearing a 50% retracement of the 1259.75-1419.75 rally at 1339.75.  Support should come into play at this bottom range to bounce this market back into retesting the market from where it broke down at 1390-1411.  Failure to hold these levels puts the next major support into play being the 1320 level from where the market broke out of in February, also a 61.8% retracement level.

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Ever since the Euro broke out of its downtrend from November in January after reversing off lows of 12627 and trading through the first trading day of the year range of 13020-13085, this range has turned into support.  This is the market showing us that the breakdown in January has a head fake and the market is attempting to reverse its momentum as it climbed back above that first trading day of the year range.  Since then, the Euro squeezed into testing resistance from December however was unable to continue the push which was followed by a retest of the 13020-13085 support.  This led to another bounce that failed at the now new resistance from February levels, which was followed by another breakdown to retest its support level.  This failure at the February levels turned into a right shoulder as the market came down to test its neckline as many shorts were looking for a break to confirm a head/shoulders formation.  During the month of April the Euro pressed against this neckline and even clipped it to put in lows of 13000 however held its 12975 lows from February and reversed back higher.  This led to a major consolidation and struggle to hold this neckline as the Euro has fought with its back against the wall trying to chip away at sellers and get the market out of this downward pressure.  This is needed for the market to try and squeeze higher to have shorts in as fuel for an upside rally.  Currently the Euro has worked through its 13200 resistance and is testing its next major resistance from the failed March highs which also meets with a downward resistance from the Feb-Mar highs connected.  Buyers who defended the 13020-13085 support level have opportunity again to lock in profits and leave runners to let the market work itself out to try and squeeze through this resistance.  A move past the March highs squeezes out the shorts who were looking for the head/shoulder breakdown and targets the February highs.  Moving past this February high squeezes out the remaining shorts giving fuel for the next leg up to try and retrace into 138 from where the market broke down from in October.  This 138 is the ultimate resistance in Euro off the 14241 highs and sellers should be looking at this level to defend.  As stated before the Euro is in short covering mode ever since it climbed above the Jan 3rd levels and support is seen down to 12890.  A break below 13000 would shake out weak bulls however taking out the year lows of 12627 is needed to put the ball back in the bears hands. 

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