Chicagostock Trading

Chicagostock Trading

Euro's Failed Break and USD Head/Shoulder

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Ever since the Euro broke out of its downtrend from November in January after reversing off lows of 12627 and trading through the first trading day of the year range of 13020-13085, this range has turned into support.  This is the market showing us that the breakdown in January has a head fake and the market is attempting to reverse its momentum as it climbed back above that first trading day of the year range.  Since then, the Euro squeezed into testing resistance from December however was unable to continue the push which was followed by a retest of the 13020-13085 support.  This led to another bounce that failed at the now new resistance from February levels, which was followed by another breakdown to retest its support level.  This failure at the February levels turned into a right shoulder as the market came down to test its neckline as many shorts were looking for a break to confirm a head/shoulders formation.  During the month of April the Euro pressed against this neckline and even clipped it to put in lows of 13000 however held its 12975 lows from February and reversed back higher.  This led to a major consolidation and struggle to hold this neckline as the Euro has fought with its back against the wall trying to chip away at sellers and get the market out of this downward pressure.  This is needed for the market to try and squeeze higher to have shorts in as fuel for an upside rally.  Currently the Euro has worked through its 13200 resistance and is testing its next major resistance from the failed March highs which also meets with a downward resistance from the Feb-Mar highs connected.  Buyers who defended the 13020-13085 support level have opportunity again to lock in profits and leave runners to let the market work itself out to try and squeeze through this resistance.  A move past the March highs squeezes out the shorts who were looking for the head/shoulder breakdown and targets the February highs.  Moving past this February high squeezes out the remaining shorts giving fuel for the next leg up to try and retrace into 138 from where the market broke down from in October.  This 138 is the ultimate resistance in Euro off the 14241 highs and sellers should be looking at this level to defend.  As stated before the Euro is in short covering mode ever since it climbed above the Jan 3rd levels and support is seen down to 12890.  A break below 13000 would shake out weak bulls however taking out the year lows of 12627 is needed to put the ball back in the bears hands. 

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SP500 Market Update

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138 Euro, 75 USD

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For the past 2 and half weeks, the Euro has consolidated and fought to hold its daily neckline stemming from the February - March lows.  This was breached on the 16th of March as the Euro hit lows of 13000, however quickly recovered and closed back above the trend line.  This shake out has seen the market continue to hold above its neckline, however meeting major resistance at the 13200 level.  Last Friday we saw the Euro close on highs hitting 13232, only to turn back lower on Monday and retest its breakout point.  This is at a critical level for the Euro as if this market is indeed ready to move higher, these Monday lows of 13107 should be supported for buyers to take out the  Monday highs of 13214 to show their strength of pushing back above 13200.  In turn the next major resistance comes within 13280-13387 from where the market broke down on April 2nd, as the range for buyers to squeeze through to target the February highs of 13488 and ultimately complete the retracement to 13800.  

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30 Year Bond Hourly

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SP500 Targets NFP Breakdown 1395s

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