Chicagostock Trading

Chicagostock Trading

SP500's Trouble with 2665 and Thursday's Vol Windows Defined

On Thursday, the day after the FOMC statement, we review the intraday action in regards to Chicagostock's Volatility windows and pivots.  The highlighted blue box, is the cash market open, NYSE 930 AM.  After the open, the cash market had trouble overcoming the intraday pivots, seeing the range act as resistance.  This led the market to fall into the lower Vol window which was met with a defensive bounce.  The defensive bounce gave way for a retest of the open, giving sellers an area to defend and buyers major resistance to overcome.  For buyers that picked up the initial test of the lower Vol window, this provided a bounce to take some profits into.  Second or third attempt at the lower Vol window, increases the odds of seeing the level failing. After failing to overcome the opening range, the market drifted back toward the lower Vol window which was taken out. In order to establish a bearish intraday bias, a 5 minute hold below the lower Vol window needs to be seen.  Sometimes the market can establish a bias, and bounce back to the open to again force sellers to defend their intraday trend.  In this case, the second test of the lower Vol window saw the level taken out, establishing a bearish intraday bias.  Since there was already an early bounce off the lower Vol window, there was not another one and sellers expanded the market lower, forcing longs to liquidate into the close. 

 

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2623 & 2665

Right before Thanksgiving, there was one technical pattern that was yet to be completed, the inverted head/shoulder projecting 2626 seen here. When the market made new month lows on November 15th and recovered, this created a bear trap with a minor inverted head/shoulder pattern that completed the next day at 2587. After squeezing off the low and completing the small inverted head/shoulder, two new patterns developed.  The pullback into retesting the November low gave buyers an opportunity to defend the low, in turn creating a right shoulder for a larger inverted head/shoulder pattern, targeting 2623.  Inside of this right shoulder, a minor cup/handle formed, projecting a breakout over the neckline of 258950 to test 2600.  After pushing through 2590, the market overcame its last high made on November 16th, aka the "neckline", giving way to expand the larger inverted h/s pattern from 2589 up to 2623. It took 5 trading days to get to this objective on November 28th.  After running into 2623 and completing the inverted head/shoulder technical pattern, this is where the market became sloppy.  Buyers were not done. Buyers rushed into the market on November 30th in anticipation of the tax bill passing the senate, pushing the market to make a high of 265850. The next day after this high, news came out alleging President Trump ordering Flynn to contact Russia as a candidate, not as the President elect. Nonetheless the market flushed down to a low of 2605, before recovering to settle the market at 2644 and await the tax vote into the weekend. Over the weekend the senate managed to pass the tax bill, which saw Sunday's futures gap 10 higher on the open at 2654.  The higher open lured in new buyers, run into the 2665 100% Fibonacci extension where the lid was met and resisted, dropping the market back to Friday's settle of 2644. 

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Is This the Top?

Last week, we highlighted the inverted head/shoulder technical pattern that was created after the market made new lows for the month in November and caught new shorts on the hook.  This inverted head/shoulder pattern, gave room to expand the market above the neckline of 258950 up to 262350.  The target was met on November 28th, with the market hitting a high of 2627.  

 

 

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The Turkey Squeeze - T/A Galore: 2 Inverted Head/Shoulders and a Cup/Handle

 

 Last week, the market took out the early November low of 256225, falling into 255550, before quickly bouncing back to 257150.  This break of the monthly low turned into a failed breakdown and a head fake as the market retested 2562 into the end of day, creating a right shoulder for an inverted head/shoulder pattern.  Shorts below 2562 were left trapped, giving opportunity to expand the range up to 257150.  

 

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US Dollar Down 10%, Now What?

 

Since our last report on March 17th titled "Will President Trump Devalue the US Dollar?", the US dollar is down over 9%, falling from 100 down to a recent low of 90.79.  This does not mean a dollar devaluation has occurred, or will, however as we pointed out, there are risks out there that needed to be factored in, and the market is doing just that.  

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